Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Why Mr Arvind Kejriwal will fail miserably?


It has been some time since we have been seeing and hearing lots of noise by Mr Arvind Kejriwal (AK). Even if AAP voted to power i strongly believe they will fail miserably. I believe that the tasks which he claims that he can deliver are much more complex in nature and cannot be solved my hand weaving arguments and superficial plans. I am going to discuss the facts and science of issues and plan  of action proposed by Mr AK to solve. See why these cannot be solved by any means he suggests. Let us take corruption first, what is corruption? We need to study the corruption to understand it. So often people confuse the bureaucracy with corruption. Basically bureaucracy is name for very large administrative systems, normally government departments are very large in nature and know for its  complexity, inefficiency and inflexibility. Bureaucracy is only know efficient and rational way to organize the human activates and maintain societies. So there is in efficiency in the system itself and know for its slowness. Which is not related to corruption and no one can be punished for system inefficiency, if you order a probe on result of system inefficiency finally you will find no one to punish and you would have waste huge resources and time. One more aspect of the system is that there is never adequate supply of materials and resources, system works by optimizing the usage available supplies for matters of at most urgent to least urgent. No individual can be blamed for these if you want to eradicate these things the government expenditure will shout up very high. Is it worth to spend so much to gain 5% or 10% increase in efficiency. This system is very large and consists of people with different aspirations like money, power, religion,  caste and so on. These system are large and people with aspiration for power try to get into those position and people with aspiration for money will try to get into position where they can make more. There are people with different aspirations other than money none of proposed law (Lokpal) can target and punish them. These two are different in core level aspirations, first bureaucracy (as in slang) is due to the aspiration of people for power. When they want to keep the powers with them they create administrative system that other cannot reach easily. The people with aspiration with power sits on the top levels and people with aspiration for money sits in the lower level position those are the ones ask you bribes. Only very small part of the highly complex system will be targeted by the Lokpal bill. In the end there will no effective changes in the system. AAP believes that by passing law one can eradicate corruption. If it can be done like that many countries would have succeed in completely eradicating corruption.

The problem lies in completely different place, no one human can comprehend the whole system of governance because of its complexity and governed by thousands of interdependent laws. With proper education and training single human can understand little part of it, each and every individual grasp it in different way. There problem needs to be attacked from two different point one is by making the  process transparent second and major need of the country is to educate the people. What good any law can do if 40-60% your population can not read and write and 80% of people cannot fill a form. So basically there will be always disappointment on the system and administrators.Next on the list is swaraj, something like this has been promised and discussed across all political parties. He gave new name it mohala sbha, let us examine how it is going to function. He splits city into small mohalas similar to panchyaths wards. There will be meeting held every month and people from each mohal decide what they want. So do the existing system, panchayths and wards people elect them and public hearing meetings are done. Why the current system failed, it not because politicians or corruption. It failed because peoples ignorance and unwillingness to participate in any kind of Democratic practices. If mohallas are going to be more powerful than existing system if so what will happen when people do not participate. In that case you create powerful system and give to some group of people to abuse its powers. So come to reality and see the society, the problem is not the system, it is the people i.e us. What will happen when there is difference in opinion on what to and what not to do. If thousand people come together not every one is going to see eye to eye on the issues. There is always going to short of supply than demands. Is it good idea to keep huge crowd to keep discuss (i will say fight) over issues on monthly basis. So you have no idea of crowd psychology, if you say arrange security. Do you know much resource it requires? It will be waste of money on something which not going to improve anything at all. Such crowd people with strong voice basically who can shout will  only be heard, you can see that in AAP meetings already. After few tries people who are not herd will stop going to these mohalls until finally few power hungry people. Why am i sure, because this what will happen if your create powerful system without achieving equality and literacy and this how in the past our systems failed. The only way to archive is through economic development which leads to increase of middle class. It is a slow process; there is no magic wand to change country in overnight. What Kejriwal and his colleagues are trying to do will sooner or later end up in a civil war, as we know it could take 100 years before to see any good change in the mean time economy will fall and inflation will rise. After that it will take another 50 years to build the nation. Instead if we continue in the current path let economy grow in next 20 years 60 to 80% people will be lifted from poverty line and all  the required changes will follow automatically.